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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 71

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to DEN 22, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 9-K.Hinton.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 71, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 29, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model