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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 19 at the 22

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(:02) 9-J.Tucker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +3.22 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model