Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 88

Denver Broncos 7 – Baltimore Ravens 14

(:48) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to BAL 32, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 13-D.Duvernay to DEN 26 for 42 yards (43-M.Kiser).

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.72 EP
66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 88, worth -4.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model