Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 19 at the 58

Denver Broncos 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

(12:11) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to BAL 8, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 20 for 12 yards (37-P.Locke; 46-J.Bobenmoyer).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.75 EP
72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 58, worth -2.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model