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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 35

Buffalo Bills 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(3:15) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass short left to 26-D.Singletary to WAS 35 for no gain (52-J.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +4.01 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT +0.57 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model