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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 70

Washington Commanders 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(8:24) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to BUF 18, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 24 for 6 yards (95-C.Toohill).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.55 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 70, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 28, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP