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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 62

Buffalo Bills 36 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(14:52) 3-M.Haack punts 60 yards to WAS 2, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.05 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP