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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 11

Buffalo Bills 33 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 2-T.Bass 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.55 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP