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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 45

Washington Commanders 14 – Buffalo Bills 27

What Actually Happened

(13:08) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to BUF 7, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 19-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.73 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 45, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model