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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 3

Buffalo Bills 21 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(1:40) 2-T.Bass 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.69 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 3, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP