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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 79

Washington Commanders 14 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(3:42) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to BUF 37, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 19-I.McKenzie to WAS 30 for 33 yards (95-C.Toohill, 96-J.Smith-Williams). Return credited to WAS 48 (spot of foul). PENALTY on BUF-44-T.Matakevich, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 48.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.66 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 79, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 36, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model