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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 51

Buffalo Bills 21 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 3-M.Haack punts 37 yards to WAS 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.08 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 51, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.70 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP