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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 60

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Dallas Cowboys 41

What Actually Happened

(:54) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle to PHI 44 for 4 yards (59-C.Golston).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.11 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 60, worth -2.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 19, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model