Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 57

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Dallas Cowboys 34

What Actually Happened

(8:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 31 for -12 yards (sack split by 97-O.Odighizuwa and 11-M.Parsons). Penalty on PHI-77-A.Dillard, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP

What Happened

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.71 EP
64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 57, worth -2.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model