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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 2

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(11:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 1-C.Wilson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.74 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 2, worth +0.63 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model