4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 71

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Dallas Cowboys 27

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 8-A.Siposs punts 39 yards to DAL 32, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 88-C.Lamb.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 71, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model