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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 49

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(:20) 8-A.Siposs punts 38 yards to DAL 11, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-54-S.Bradley.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.78 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -1.37 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model