Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 94

Dallas Cowboys 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(4:11) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to PHI 38, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 34 for -4 yards (44-J.McQuaide; 54-A.Kamara). PENALTY on PHI-84-G.Ward, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 34.

The Three Options

GO -3.09 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.41 EP
60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 94, worth -5.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model