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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 68

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(:01) 8-A.Siposs punts 41 yards to DAL 27, Center-45-R.Lovato. 88-C.Lamb to DAL 35 for 8 yards (57-T.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 26, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model