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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 27

Denver Broncos 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 8-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.53 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 27, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model