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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 3

Denver Broncos 20 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 8-B.McManus 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.85 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 3, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP