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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 66

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(6:11) 4-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to DEN 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 26 for 11 yards (45-H.Nasirildeen).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.18 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model