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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 52

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to NYJ 9, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-82-E.Saubert.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.29 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 52, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP