4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 20 at the 50

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(:47) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to MIA 1, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-7-Z.Jones. PENALTY on MIA-24-By.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 0 yards, enforced at MIA 1.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.97 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 50, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model