Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 65

Miami Dolphins 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 25

(2:18) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass short middle to 11-D.Parker to 50 for 15 yards (29-C.Hayward).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +0.81 EP
65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 65, worth -3.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.47 EP