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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 76

Miami Dolphins 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 12

What Actually Happened

(12:44) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to LV 26, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 28 for 2 yards (9-N.Igbinoghene).

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model