4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 30

Miami Dolphins 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 12

What Actually Happened

(:02) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +2.47 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -0.14 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model