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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 39

Miami Dolphins 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 5

What Actually Happened

(6:28) 5-M.Palardy punts 34 yards to LV 5, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-86-M.Hollins.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.86 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.99 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP