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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 32

Las Vegas Raiders 2 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 2-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.50 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 32, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 42, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model