Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 79

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

(13:36) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to MIA 24, Center-47-T.Sieg. 19-J.Grant to MIA 32 for 8 yards (7-Z.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 79, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model