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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 80

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to PIT 27, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-46-C.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.87 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 80, worth -2.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP