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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 64

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to PIT 15, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.62 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model