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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 8

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 9-C.Boswell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.97 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 8, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model