Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 62

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to PIT 8, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-57-G.Pratt. PENALTY on PIT-31-J.Layne, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at PIT 8.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.72 EP
55% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model