Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 71

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

(13:11) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to CIN 26, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 42 for 16 yards (31-J.Layne).

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.26 EP
59% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 71, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model