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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 51

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to PIT 14, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.74 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.99 EP
KICK -1.90 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model