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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 50

Houston Texans 9 – Carolina Panthers 24

What Actually Happened

(2:38) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 13-B.Cooks to CAR 42 for 8 yards (26-D.Jackson) [7-S.Thompson].

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.19 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 50, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model