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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 35

Houston Texans 6 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 16-J.Slye 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.36 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model