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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 3

Carolina Panthers 14 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 5-Z.Gonzalez 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.

The Three Options

GO +4.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.14 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 3, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.37 EP