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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 44

Houston Texans 6 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 11-C.Johnston punts 35 yards to CAR 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.78 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -0.35 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model