Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 70

Houston Texans 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

(2:16) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to CAR 26, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.89 EP
64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model