Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 64

Houston Texans 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

(5:58) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to CAR 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 29 for 12 yards (32-G.Wallow).

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.27 EP
67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model