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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 3-J.Charlton punts 32 yards to HOU 36, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 26, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP