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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 5

Carolina Panthers 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to HOU 5 for no gain (58-C.Kirksey, 41-Z.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO +3.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.80 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 5, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model