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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 53

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(:59) 9-C.Nizialek punts 39 yards to NYG 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 18-C.Board.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.55 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 53, worth -3.14 EP
KICK -2.15 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP