Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 65

New York Giants 3 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to ATL 10, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 35-A.Williams pushed ob at ATL 25 for 15 yards (52-C.Coughlin; 37-G.Brightwell). PENALTY on NYG-37-G.Brightwell, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 25.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.37 EP
51% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 65, worth -3.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model