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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 7

New York Giants 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(7:01) 5-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.43 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 7, worth +0.50 EP
KICK +2.42 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model