Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 63

Atlanta Falcons 7 – New York Giants 6

(3:15) 9-C.Nizialek punts 51 yards to NYG 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 21-J.Peppers to NYG 29 for 17 yards (40-K.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.95 EP
54% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 63, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model