4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 39

New York Giants 6 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 9-R.Dixon punts 34 yards to ATL 5, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-31-K.Crossen.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.70 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 39, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.13 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP