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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 13

New York Giants 3 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 5-G.Gano 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.56 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 13, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 23, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model